I regularly order tea from Chinese webshops, to be shipped to the Netherlands. As of 2024, this is easy and not too expensive: I can pay using my credit card and it will be delivered within a few weeks to my door, with shipping costing something like 20% of the value of the tea. The market for year X resolves to YES if this is still my experience in that year.
The market resolves to NO if one of the following happens for a significant part of the year:
Payment cannot be done by any of: credit card, debit card, or PayPal.
The price of tea rises much faster than inflation (say, 5x higher inflation-adjusted).
I cannot get the tea shipped directly to western Europe.
Shipping prices rise to over 100% of the price of the tea.
Expected shipping times rise to above 6 months.
The last two points will trigger if one or the other is the case for every shipping option.
I'll add more years if there is activity to justify it.
1,000@Daniel_MC While that's certainly one factor, I can also imagine climate change could cause issues here.