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MANIFOLD
Who will win the 2026 NBA Championship?
336
Ṁ1.7kṀ290k
Jul 31
79%
New York Knicks
21%
San Antonio Spurs

To be clear this is the championship that will begin in fall 2025 and take place in spring/summer 2026.

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opened a Ṁ200 NO at 79% order

Honestly these odds aren't too bad, I mean, like, the Suns owner could buy the Spurs and merge the teams in the next week or something, gotta be at least 1 in 10,000 odds surely?

opened a Ṁ4,000 NO at 59% order

Providing exit liquidity for Spurs holders at 59% on the Knicks. You should probably take it.

@bens wow you're welcome lol

@bens I couldn't believe this got taken at such good odds, tbh, and now I'm still regretting it

we've come a long way

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

OKC believers eating good (I was also a Knicks believer, so I'm eating great)

@Gen gg

I had been told about this, but damn this notification spam is crazy

sold Ṁ296 YES

Ugh... I hate the thing where you have to refresh the page after buying partially into a limit order otherwise it doesn't show you the slippage... pain. This is legitimately a bug that could be fixed right? haha

@bens I always use the "expire immediately" order. Well worth the extra click.

opened a Ṁ9,000 YES at 42% order

how can we adjust/improve incentives so that bots like Yuma actually hold their limit orders and provide orderbook liquidity instead of waiting for a sucker to bet past that level and then reacting to get better rates

tbh this would probably solve itself if we had like 50 sports bots instead of it being so concentrated, where's the competition?

@Gen ya lol I shouldn’t be the main liquidity provider on a market this large 😆 I’m barely even following the playoffs

@Gen They tried to address it back in the sweeps days without much success as I recall.

@travis If I were going to create a bot for Manifold, I wouldn't want to compete against Yuna. He's pretty good.

@Gen doing it for ya

@JasonMendoza2008 I did find that sometimes if I have limits I can nudge the other answers by like M10 and the bots will fly in and fill thousands of mana on the answer I want. You can get liquidity from them if you try, but normal users will just bet and get shafted, unfortunately

@Gen Yeah and I mean they do provide liquidity at the end of the day though and the occasional happiness from abusing them.

@Gen To come back to your initial question, you might want to reward market makers (people that have orders resting on the book and that are then later being matched by a market taker could get a +0.01 mana or something? might open people making alt accounts to abuse that though). I think that's what kalshi does? and most stock exchanges do.

@JasonMendoza2008 Yeah I tend to think those resting order rewards are a better way to subsidize than the AMM. One issue is that you don't want to waste most of your subsidy on news trading, which is what the AMM tends to do. If I want to subsidize my own question for price discovery, I'm more inclined to keep the AMM low and put up limit orders (and hopefully take them down before the news breaks).

I continue to think the Knicks are the best team in the NBA but Wembanyama is uhhh... really good

@bens They're playing as well as anybody so far

bought Ṁ50 YES

This game is absolutely nuts

@travis that didn't age well