Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

Question

I was supposed to get the stuff put on my teeth today, but it got postponed; since I'm leaving town I probably won't get it applied for another month or two.

It takes about a year for it to become effective, so this market is really "Will I get any new cavities from 1 year after application (latest December 2023, so final cavity check Dec 2024), until the end of 2026?"

I'll do a dental visit around 1 year from application to check for baseline cavities, and won't count any that exist.

I am historically very cavity prone, I've had I think 14 cavities? I have good but not great oral hygeine; I brush 1-2 times a day and go through phases of regular flossing and not flossing. I last visited the dentist 6 months ago and they said "everything looks pretty good."

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 23% chance (112 traders, as of Jul 2, 2026).