Compared to 16 Nov 2023, will my (@jcb's) opinion of Sam Altman be more positive on [various dates]?
2
225Ṁ379
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO
...on 24 Nov 2023?
Resolved
NO
...on 1 Jan 2024?
Resolved
NO
...on 1 Dec 2023?
Resolved
NO
...on 1 Jul 2024?
Resolved
NO
...on 1 Jan 2025?

Before he was removed, I had no strong impression of Sam Altman; I'd say I had a neutral-to-positive opinion him, based on "generic tech executive" and "OpenAI seems to be doing vaguely okay at balancing capabilities, alignment, and mundane safety work".

As of Wed 22 Nov, I have a somewhat negative opinion of Sam Altman, with great uncertainty. I find the degree of personal loyalty to him among OpenAI employees very weird. Based on this and his history at YC, I suspect he's manipulative and power-grabby. I suspect the board removed him because they felt Altman was not completely aligned with the nonprofit mission and was becoming ungovernable, in a way they could not communicate legibly or without creating legal risk to themselves.

There are still a ton of unknowns here. As more information comes out and we gain more distance from the events, I'm curious whether my opinion will change substantially.

Resolves to YES if I feel more positively about Altman compared to before , 50% if I feel basically the same, and NO if I feel more negatively about him.

I will not bet in this market.

This market will close on the next listed date. I'll resolve the question for that date and update the close time to the next date.

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