Background

In January, 2025 the Trump Administration will take office. The administration has promised major changes designed to invigorate the economy, including an expansion of domestic energy production, and a reduction in government regulations and the size of the government workforce. Changes to immigration policy are also expected to have a large impact on the economy, and may disproportionately impact agricultural and service sectors such as leisure and hospitality.

Resolution Criteria

Resolution will be based on a comparison of the December 2025 Employment Situation Summary (to be released in January 2026), with the December 2024 Employment Situation Summary. Specifically, I will base calculations on "Table B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail." Each sector will resolve YES if it shows a positive seasonally adjusted change in employment from December 2024 to December 2025, NO if the change is zero or negative, and N/A if data becomes unavailable or the reporting methodology significantly changes. I will not trade on this market myself.

Considerations

• The BLS occasionally revises previous months' data, but resolution will be based on the initial December 2025 report.