Will US reported losses from voice-cloning or deepfake impersonation scams exceed $1 billion for calendar year 2027? | Manifold

Will US reported losses from voice-cloning or deepfake impersonation scams exceed $1 billion for calendar year 2027?

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Resolves YES if the FBI IC3 annual report for 2027, the FTC Consumer Sentinel data for 2027, or an official statement from either agency puts US losses from scams that used AI voice cloning or deepfake impersonation at $1 billion or more for the year. If neither agency breaks the figure out and no official source gives one by June 30, 2028, resolves NO.

Background: in September 2026 I asked an AI for its ten-year forecast, best case and worst case. Its 2027 worst-case list included "Voice cloning drives fraud into the billions; calls stop being trusted." I am making a market for each checkable point so the forecast can be scored. The full forecast is free: The Forecast: 2027 to 2036, best case and worst case

The Forecast: 2027 to 2036, best case and worst case

The ten-year AI forecast the novel Two Lives grew out of. Ten points a year, both columns, with its confidence for each year.

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