Migrant encounters as recorded by the US border patrol were at an all-time high in 2022 with 2.3 million cases. Currently (July 3rd 2023) the US Border Patrol has had 1.6 million encounters this year so far.
Will 2023 (fiscal year ending sept 30th 2023) have more migrant encounters than 2022 fiscal year and beat the record?
Resolution will be decided by US customs and border page: https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters
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https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_4c0df382-6373-11ee-bf56-d720695f1989.html
This article cites preliminary numbers for September: "This includes at least 222,009 apprehensions"
I like your account concept. Could you post the article/section where the claim is made in the future in the market description so we can easily find it?
@zzlk thanks for the feedback, will do this going forward. NYT is almost always paywalled so I wonder if auditing other sources would be more useful
Can you confirm that you will be going by CBP Fiscal Year (as that is what the question's description link's charts and graphs show)? If so, I will increase my NO bet further.
From the cbp.gov website linked in the description, looking at the current gap from 2023 to 2022 (Jan to May): 1641943 - 1539314 = 102629 more people crossed so far.
So there are already 100k+ more so far this year, however the summer months this year have had record temperatures and may continue until August so I would expect the numbers to drop further.
According to the following article, migrant numbers for June have plummeted from policy decisions as well (~4k apprehensions/day * 30 days ~= 120k). If this this is a good estimation for the official estimate from CBP then the difference is only ~ +10k for 2023 to 2022. Based on the current policies and temperature trends I expect them to continually to substantially drop relative to 2022 months enough, so I am estimating it will be very unlikely that these numbers would be made up in later months this year in order for this question resolve the question YES.
Based on this I am betting NO.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/migrant-crossings-us-mexico-border-down-in-june-stricter-asylum-rules/
@parhizj Ah thanks for pointing this out! Changed the close date and the description. You're right this should follow the CBP's fiscal year ending in september
@parhizj They added June data (it is higher than crossings since it is a slightly different number) and it did drop significantly.
The gap is 39366 more in 2023 than 2022 from (Jan to June). I expect it to drop more in July with just from the heat wave alone and the question to still resolve NO.
I am temporarily selling off some of my profitable markets since I need the liquidity for this weekend.
New update: July numbers increased much higher from June.
2022 July - 2023 July = 16659
That decreases the total gap for Jan to July (2023 - 2022 data) from 39366 to 22707.
There are two months left in the fiscal year. That means the August and September 2023 must have an average each of 11354 less encounters when compared to 2022.
I was not expecting such a large increase for July. I still expect this question to resolve NO as I believe the high numbers for July 2022 are unlikely to be matched and expect August and September to be that much lower, but I am going to bet YES as I think the probability is higher than 11% for there to be a large increase next month and in September..
New update: August numbers soared again...
2023 August - 2022 August = 232,972 - 204,087 = 28,885 more (this is more than what I mentioned before which should have been negative for it to resolve YES)
2023 total (sans the one remaining month) is 2,206,039
2022 total (entire fiscal year) is 2,378,944
2,378,944 - 2,206,039 = 172,905
That means September must have more than 172,905 encounters to exceed 2022.
8 out of the 11 months this year have had more than those numbers (9 out of 12 months last year). As for seasonality (it is unusually warm for a September globally) and the last 2 out of 3 years have had September encounter numbers higher than this also.
Recently Biden announced he was sending more people to the border (which should only increase the recorded number encounters I speculate since I don't think it is enough to actually stop these record numbers of migrants)
Based on this I think it is very likely this question will resolve YES.