https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/05/magazine/democratic-national-committee-2024.html
"'the question only is whether or not the president is going to put his name on the ballot. They’re trying to come after New Hampshire, but it’s not going to be successful. So why go through all that pain?'"
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(double post)
As expected he won't be on the ballot. https://www.sos.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt561/files/documents/2023-10/cumulative-filings-10.27.23.pdf
hoping we'll see closure when the deadline to file passes on the 27th.
https://themessenger.com/politics/biden-will-not-be-on-new-hampshire-primary-ballot
In an opinion yesterday, WaPo says "It’s highly likely that President Biden’s name won’t show up on the ballot... The best news for a compromise is the probability that even if Biden does not appear on the ballot in an unsanctioned primary, he will almost certainly carry the state with write-in votes."
... though in fairness, the idea that Biden'd win based solely on write-in votes is crazy to me personally and maybe undermines the piece's credibility...
@twink_joan_didion Why? It's not like people voting in the NH primary don't know who Biden is. Everyone knows he's running and can write him in if they want to vote for him. Lisa Murkowski won the Alaska Senate race in 2010 as a write-in candidate, and that was a much more uphill battle than Biden would have in New Hampshire.
@JosephNoonan But this market would still resolve NO even if Biden won by write ins, wouldn’t it? In that situation, his name didn’t ‘appear’ on the ballot as I would understand it. If I write ‘Jake Teale’ on my ballot, I don’t think I could claim ‘Jake Teale’s name appeared on the New Hampshire primary ballot.’
@JakeTeale @JosephNoonan this market will resolve 'No' if Biden is not one of the official options, even if he wins by write-ins.
This is not a market about whether Biden wins the state or not. (let me know if these terms still aren't clear).
@jaden I think the terms are clear. I misunderstood Noonan’s comment, hence my request for clarification.
@jaden I think the terms are clear (and were even before you clarified). My comment was in response to the previous commenter who thought there was no way Biden could win from write-in votes, not a statement on how this should resolve if that happens.