Will Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO be declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court before 2029?
Basic
20
Ṁ1454
2029
88%
chance

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/

  • Update 2025-21-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): ### Update from creator

    • Supreme Court Decision:

    • Resolves to Yes if the Supreme Court overturns the EO.

    • Lower Court Decision:

    • If overturned by a lower court, awaits potential appeal.

    • Administrative Reversal:

    • Resolves to No if the Trump administration reverses the policy.

      Update:
      if a lower court declares it unconstitutional and the supreme court declines to hear the case, letting the lower court ruling stand, resolves to YES

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What's the resolution if a lower court declares it unconstitutional and the supreme court declines to hear the case, letting the lower court ruling stand?

@CoreyLLanum this is a tough one, but I think this would resolve as YES

Oh, the comment wasn't deleted, manifold is just a bit buggy. Nevertheless, I did mean to reply to that!

@Reddealer you seem to have deleted your comment, but I think because the title is very specific, I will resolve yes on a supreme court decision overturning it.

If it's shot down by a lower court, I will have to wait if there is possibility of an appeal.
If the trump admin themselves declare a reversal of the policy, this will resolve NO

@jade thanks for clarifying, yeah I think based on the title I hear you.

It’s very common that constitutional questions are resolved without reaching the Supreme Court, so I think I won’t participate in this one.

What about other ways the EO could be overturned? Like lower court ruling, the Supreme Court could decline to hear the case. Or Trump admin could withdraw the EO somehow? How would those scenarios resolve?

bought Ṁ80 YES

It is blatantly unconstitutional and trumps aponites have ruled against him before

@DavidOman I agree the odds are in favor of them considering it unconstitutional just not by that high a percentage

bought Ṁ10 NO

Sorry

bought Ṁ5 NO from 78% to 75%

will avoid betting my own market, but for the record, my prediction is "yes"

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