@jacksonpolack

Any update on this?

Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin said Monday that police had identified "profiles" of people who may have been behind the attack and suggested that far-left activists could have been responsible, though he did not provide specific evidence to back up his claim.

- Axios (after another act of sabotage) https://www.axios.com/2024/07/29/france-fiber-optic-olympic-attack

https://www.leparisien.fr/faits-divers/attaque-massive-du-reseau-sncf-une-intrigante-delegation-inconnue-anti-jo-au-coeur-des-investigations-27-07-2024-HZ6QDP4QT5FLRLWYW3K5NP47Q4.php?at_creation=Le%20Parisien&at_campaign=Partage%20Twitter%20CM&at_medium=Social%20media

Almost duplicate question: https://manifold.markets/Bramber/who-sabotaged-the-train-tracks-at-t

Why the sudden shift? Has there been reporting?

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/why-french-authorities-fear-russia-may-attempt-to-disrupt-paris-olympics

Why would environmentalists attack public transit?

Environmentalists would not attack rail, but assorted groups of leftists or anarchists (not necessarily left-wing) might.

My impression was that environmentalists in europe often are anti-rail (in that they see it as developement, which is bad). Or is that exclusively a Berlin thing?

No air conditioning and not enough meat in the dining areas...you'd think the environmentalists would be satisfied

Same reason they attack nuclear power plants and Tesla factory.

My sense is the Green movement in European has been anti-aviation but they are not anti-rail.

There has been an attack on German train infrastructure in Germany last year by left-wing radicals, to quote them:

A few liters of gasoline in the cable shafts on the rails should lead to as long-term as possible outages or restrictions in the transport of raw materials acquired, for example, in the course of neo-colonial exploitation and earth-destroying extractivism.

(From https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/deutschland/generalbundesanwalt-ermittlungen-sabotage-bahn-zugausfaelle-100.html)

Could you split environmental and leftist?

Mechanically, no, it's not possible to split an existing answer. Best approach would be to create a new question with updated options, I think.

If it's not possible on manifold, it would be nice to add the option. Other prediction markets such as hypermind have been doing it for years.

It would be a helpful feature (though I expect it would sometimes cause confusion and problems); there's certainly nothing mathematically hard about it.

Maybe it could ask holders which way would they like to split, or percentages of the split?

The basic math is just that if you have an option equivalent to "X or Y", then you can split it into two options, "X" and "Y". Every holder of an "X or Y" share gets that share replaced by one each of X and Y shares. The obvious price to start the new shares trading at is that they each trade at half the price of the original, and then you buy them up / down from there. Making the split requires adding liquidity in the same way that adding a new option that splits off "other" does.

Basically it's identical to splitting a new option off from "other"; there's nothing special about the "other" option, in general.

Related but not identical question: