This resolves to Vox Future Perfect's judgement of this question.

Oatly makes, in my opinion, the tastiest plant-based milk on the market. A lot of people agree, and the company took the dairy alternative sector by storm in the late 2010s.

The fervor drove the company to go public in May 2021 with a stock price debut of $17 per share, which peaked at almost $29 that summer. Since then, it’s been in free fall. It’s now just a little over $1 per share, and earlier this year, it went under 50 cents per share.

The company has been plagued by manufacturing shortages and inefficiencies, and a wave of imitators. Oatly pretty much created oat milk in the 1990s, but once it started to become popular, every company that was making plant milk from soy, almonds, and other ingredients began making milk from oats, too. In other words, it’s partly a victim of its own success.

In its quarter three financials released in November, it reported just a 2.5 percent revenue increase year over year, with sales shooting up in the Europe, Middle East, and Africa region, slightly declining in the Americas, and dropping sharply by 31 percent in Asia. It just opened its first production facility in China, which could help it turn things around in the region where it’s arguably poised for the most growth.

That said, global plant-based milk sales were still growing last year, and the company has a better product and branding than its competitors. But I’m skeptical it’ll be enough to help the company ramp up its revenue. —KT

Vox's prediction was "60 percent"