(long-term) Will existing LLMs have ~0 risk of catastrophic instrumental convergence if scaled up 1000x more compute? | Manifold

(long-term) Will existing LLMs have ~0 risk of catastrophic instrumental convergence if scaled up 1000x more compute?

4

70Ṁ33

2043

58%

chance

1H

6H

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1M

ALL

from https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hc9nMipTXy2sm3tJb/vote-on-interesting-disagreements

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Related questions

Will the best LLM in 2026 have <500 billion parameters?

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Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

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Will Landauer's limit be reached (to within a factor of 10) in practical computing devices before 2050?

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