
(long-term) Will existing LLMs have ~0 risk of catastrophic instrumental convergence if scaled up 1000x more compute?
4
70Ṁ332043
58%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
from https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hc9nMipTXy2sm3tJb/vote-on-interesting-disagreements
Resolves whenever there's consensus in the AI field on this
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the best LLM in 2025 have <1 trillion parameters?
42% chance
Will the best LLM in 2025 have <500 billion parameters?
23% chance
Will the best LLM in 2026 have <1 trillion parameters?
40% chance
Will the best LLM in 2027 have <1 trillion parameters?
26% chance
Will the best LLM in 2026 have <500 billion parameters?
27% chance
Will the best LLM in 2027 have <500 billion parameters?
13% chance
Will the best LLM in 2027 have <250 billion parameters?
12% chance
Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?
35% chance
Will an LLM consistently create 5x5 word squares by 2026?
84% chance
Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?
16% chance