Because control over a city can be difficult to resolve, this question resolves based on control of Svobody Square in central Kherson, where the Kherson Regional Administration building is located.
Resolves YES if Ukraine controls Svobody Square in central Kherson starting before the end of 2022, for a period of at least 7 consecutive days, according to reporting by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Otherwise resolves NO. Times will be in the local timezone in Ukraine.
(Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.)
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ISW reports that Ukraine recaptured Kherson on Nov 11. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-11
This will resolve YES if Ukraine continues to control Kherson for 7 days, which is almost certain.
The Russian command announced the retreat from Kherson
https://meduza-io.translate.goog/news/2022/11/09/rossiyskoe-komandovanie-ob-yavilo-ob-otstuplenii-iz-hersona?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
@NathanpmYoung Interesting. Not sure what that signals. (Note that this appears to be the same building I referred to in the market description)
It's now also 63% at Insight Prediction: insightprediction.com/m/73525/will-ukraine-control-kherson-city-on-december-25th-2022
@Yev Good point. Especially given that December 25th is only 7 weeks away, one week should make a difference. The kilometer difference could also matter.
@DouglasCampbell Another difference is that Insight asks who has control on a single day, December 25th. This question asks whether Ukraine will control and hold for 7 days, starting anytime before end of year. So it is possible for one to resolve yes and the other no if there is some back-and-forth in control.