Resolves YES if Twitter's monetizable Daily Active Users (mDAU) grows at a higher percentage rate in 2023 than in 2022. Otherwise NO.
More formally: if (DAU at end of 2023 / DAU at end of 2022) > (DAU at end of 2022 / DAU at end of 2021).
In the event that Twitter stops reporting mDAU but does report some sufficiently similar metric, such as DAU, will resolve based on that if it still preserves the overall spirit of the question, which is measuring the growth rate of active users. If this is not possible, resolves N/A.
See https://www.statista.com/statistics/970920/monetizable-daily-active-twitter-users-worldwide/ for past data. Comparing growth from Q4 of one year to the next, mDAU grew at 13% in 2021 and 26% in 2020.
Related:
Post of related markets:
https://manifold.markets/post/evaluating-twitter-after-a-year-of
1,000
3.00Twitter user count grew during 2022, and user count declined during 2023, according to the stats in https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-twitter-have-more-daily-active. So this is a NO.
Was (end of 2022 DAU) less than (end of 2021 DAU)? That's the only way the current price of 22% makes sense with this market currently at 8%.
https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-twitter-have-more-daily-active
According to the data i found from the statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/303681/twitter-users-worldwide/. The daily active user is getting decreased since 2021. Compared to the daily active users Twitter was pulling late last year under Musk's leadership, X has shed nearly 15 million users – a drop of roughly 5.6 percent. So, definitely, there is little chance for Twitter/X getting higher active daily user.
@f0a0 I agree with you， I use a statistical chart to illustrate the dilemma facing Twitter's user growth
Twitter traffic has been trending down since 2022， The chart below dramatizes the change by showing the year-over-year difference in traffic totals.
Over the past couple of years, Traffic to the website has been fluctuating from month to month, but with no consistent pattern of growth.
Apps usage has also been trending down for months. Over the period Twitter has been losing web traffic, and app usage has also been trending down. Here is the year-over-year change in monthly active users on Android, the platform for which we have the best worldwide data.
Twitter/x currently faces significant headwinds for user growth in 2023, as daily active users have steadily decreased since 2021 based on historical usage graphs. Elon Musk furthered its downward momentum with daily active users declining by 5.6% year-over-year for Q4 2022 according to comparative charts. Slow revenue growth and fierce rivals like TikTok further undermine Twitter's business outlook. Given Twitter's ongoing user losses and weak competitive position, increasing user growth appears challenging despite attempts at adding new features. Statistics demonstrate this point with their depiction that reversing stagnant user growth within an acceptable timeline remains unlikely; significant commercial transformation would likely be necessary to spark meaningful engagement rates that lead to positive user growth rates and engagement rates.
Source of data:https://www.similarweb.com/blog/insights/social-media-news/twitter-shrinking/
@f0a0 2023 and 2024 are marked "*Forecast as of December 2022." so it's not actual data.
@_dyc_ The question is about DAU at end of 2023. We aren't there yet. It's technically possible that in the next 2 months Twitter gains 10x more users. It's unlikely, but that's still an open prediction.
@barak Yeah, I agree. I think 2022 and 2023 will very likely be lower than 2021, but which of the two is the lowest is not easy to determine rn.