Will Trump lose / concede by end of November?
Basic
125
7.8k
Dec 1
7%
Trump loses, concedes by end of November
40%
Trump loses, does not concede by end of November
52%
Trump wins
0.7%
Trump is no longer a candidate on election day

Will Trump win or lose the 2024 election for US President, and will he concede by the end of November?

Definitions:

  • The winner is defined as the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment. It can resolve provisionally if all of ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox, NBC and The Associated Press call the same winner. Note that if the winner is unknown at the end of November, that doesn't matter, what matters is the final winner. (So if the winner is unknown at the end of November, and Trump has not conceded as a result, and later we find out that Trump lost, resolves to "Trump loses, does not concede by end of November")

  • Whether Trump concedes is defined the same as https://manifold.markets/jack/will-trump-concede-by-end-of-novemb - whether reliable media publications report that he has conceded. (I will not judge whether he has conceded, the criteria is whether they report that Trump conceded.)

  • If Trump is no longer running for President as of the start of election day (midnight ET), e.g. because he drops out, resolves to that.

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https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/01/politics/trump-strongman-ambitions-analysis/index.html

This doesn't make Trump sound likely to concede. He's probably going to put pressure on Republican officials to "find" votes for him, just like he did in 2020.

This time Trump will not have the platform he had in 2020 to dismiss the election results.

By now Fox News have paid millions of dollars to dominion voting machines and 0AN now phases as similar lawsuit.

He doesn’t have a vice president that can be cohosted into counting fake electors.

He will have to rely on TruthSocial to spread his message.

So while he may not acknowledge a loss he will have no chance of changing the outcome.

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