Will there be a deadly military conflict between Russian and NATO armed forces by end of 2022?
4%
chance

Resolves YES if by the end of 2022 kinetic military action takes place between Russian and NATO armed forces, causing at least 1 fatality. Resolves NO otherwise. (Must be between armed forces on both sides, a military attack on civilians does not count.)

Resolution details

  • Kinetic military action is defined as one involving gunfire or explosives - which does include strikes by drones, aircraft, missiles, artillery, etc. Cyberattacks would not count towards question resolution. I will use resolution criteria of similar Metaculus questions such as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/russia-and-non-us-nato-clash-by-2024/.

  • Determination of which armed forces were combatants and whether it caused at least one fatality will be based on reliable media reporting. If the identity of the combatants is not known with certainty, it counts if my reading of the consensus reporting indicates at least 90% credence that it was.