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MANIFOLD
Will the US issue perpetual bonds in 2023?
7
Ṁ150Ṁ801
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

One workaround the US government could take to circumvent the debt ceiling is to issue perpetual bonds (aka consols) - bonds that have no guarantee to repay the principal at a fixed date, instead they pay interest until whatever time the government chooses to repay them.

Because there is no obligation to repay the principal, such bonds do not count against the debt ceiling.

For background, see https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2021/09/debt-ceiling-modest-proposal.html or the last section of https://www.vox.com/22711346/trillion-dollar-coin-mintthecoin-debt-ceiling-beowulf.

Resolves YES if the US issues perpetual bonds in 2023, otherwise NO.

For the purposes of this market, "bond" will include any debt instrument that is functionally a bond; what the Treasury names it doesn't matter - e.g. T-bills, T-notes, or T-bonds all count as bonds.

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