Will the US issue premium bonds in 2023?
17%
chance

One workaround the US government could take to circumvent the debt ceiling is to issue premium bonds - bonds that pay a higher interest rate than normal and therefore can be sold for much more than the principal amount, which is what counts against the debt ceiling.

For background, see https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-01-11/financial-engineering-the-debt-ceiling or https://www.slowboring.com/p/a-new-plan-to-get-around-the-debt.

Resolves YES if the US issues premium bonds in 2023, otherwise NO. Here premium bond will be defined as any bond that the US government sells for at least 150% of the principal amount. (Issuing coupon-only bonds would count as per this definition.)

For the purposes of this market, "bond" will include any debt instrument that is functionally a bond; what the Treasury names it doesn't matter - e.g. T-bills, T-notes, or T-bonds all count as bonds.

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