Resolves according to https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14062/tiktok-ban-in-us-before-2024/:

This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, credible sources indicates that the US government has taken action with the effect that a typical American can do none of the following [edited to clearer language from the Metaculus comments]

• download the TikTok mobile app from the Google Play Store (at least without some sort of technical circumvention)

• similarly for the iOS App Store

• use the app if it was previously downloaded (the app need not be forcibly uninstalled from users devices, only that it can no longer be supported by both the Google Play Store and the iOS App Store)

The above must be in effect before January 1, 2024 to qualify, enacting legislation that would take effect later than this date would not qualify.