Will TikTok be banned in the US or forced to change ownership in 2023?
678
134k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

This resolves to YES if Tiktok is banned in the US or forced to change ownership by any US government action by the closing date (Dec 31 2023). This includes any US government action that makes it more difficult for TikTok to operate in the US without changing ownership but does not include the case where TikTok preemptively decides to change ownership without any actual action on the part of any US government action. "US government action" is defined to include both Federal and State-level actions including changes in rules or legislation, executive orders, and lawsuits brought by a US government entity. This also includes federal-level audits and US government changes to the economic playing field that are specifically targetted at TikTok. The edge case where legislation has been set in motion but has not passed yet counts as YES if it seems like it has the votes to pass and NO if it doesn't (based off of my best assessment at the time). This also resolves to YES even if the ban is subsequently challenged in courts as long as the ban would take place without a successfuly challenge though note that "banned in the US" means banned for all users in the US (so for example only for one state or only for government employees doesn't meet the criterion).

Mar 31, 1:00pm: Will TikTok be banned in the US or forced to change ownership? → Will TikTok be banned in the US or forced to change ownership in 2023?

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predicted NO

2024 and continuing versions?

📢Resolved to NO ; Did not change ownership, still owned by ByteDance

Wish I could have gotten in on this one earlier. A 50% chance to ban a social media app with 80 million monthly active users in the US, most of them currently deciding who to vote for and seeing how politics and geopolitical conflicts work for the first time, over vague national security or economic protectionism concerns and unresolveable Gen X vs Gen Z social and ideological differences, within 8 months, is a wild, wild prediction.

TikTok faces potential U.S. bans primarily due to security concerns. Montana is the only state that has enacted legislation banning TikTok on personal devices, with New York and Florida having their own restrictions. Concerns revolve around the Chinese government's access to user data through ByteDance. Legislation changes, like the RESTRICT Act and DATA Act, are needed to enforce a U.S. ban. TikTok's CEO proposed Project Texas, which aims to move U.S. user data to American servers, but lawmakers remain skeptical. Allegations in a lawsuit claim that the Chinese government could still access data through a backdoor portal. TikTok disputes these concerns, maintaining its data security.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/16/why-washington-wont-ban-tiktok-00091690
The article explores issues such as the platform's popularity, its user base's demographic diversity, and concerns about retaliation against U.S. companies in China. It also mentions potential regulatory approaches rather than an outright ban.

Yes, TikTok will be banned in the US because as per the research and data, it shows that TikTok is promoting content that is not fruitful to the young generation. Changing ownership might be a good sign in terms of data privacy but if the same thing continues then these apps might be banned as this is against US security and data stealing is a serious offense within the US.

predicted NO

@johnboban The question is not whether TikTok is good or even whether it should be banned but whether it will be banned or required to change ownership.

@NicoDelon i think this is chatgpt

Just curious, on Montana's ban, the effect does not take place until January 2024 but the bill has been signed by the Governor of Montana. Does this resolve as Yes?

predicted NO

@pain I think that the question meant that if a state sued TikTok to ban it federally, it would count, not that a state prohibiting on its own borders would count

@MP per this sentence in the description: "US government action" is defined to include both Federal and State-level actions including changes in rules or legislation, executive orders, and lawsuits brought by a US government entity."

predicted NO

@pain but in the last sentence it says:

predicted YES

@pain I think that would mean that if every state separately banned it, it would count for the market.

predicted YES

@higherLEVELING TRUE, +1 for me for not reading. Appreciate the highlight lol 👍

predicted NO

Just created a new market on Montana's recent ban.

How does this resolve if it is temporarily banned but then the ban is ruled unconstitutional?

predicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr Still resolves to YES

@Aurelius Ok, makes sense.

https://www.axios.com/2023/04/09/bidens-digital-strategy-an-army-of-influencers

"The administration is courting support on TikTok even as it has called for the platform to be sold or else risk being banned in the U.S. because of its owner's ties to China's government."

predicted YES

@Aurelius please add ”(2023)” to the title.

please

TikTok, TikTok, a ticking clock,
ByteDance's dilemma, a paradox.
Will they sell or face the block,
Better hurry up, before they're docked.