Will TikTok be banned in the US or forced to change ownership in 2023?
Jan 1

This resolves to YES if Tiktok is banned in the US or forced to change ownership by any US government action by the closing date (Dec 31 2023). This includes any US government action that makes it more difficult for TikTok to operate in the US without changing ownership but does not include the case where TikTok preemptively decides to change ownership without any actual action on the part of any US government action. "US government action" is defined to include both Federal and State-level actions including changes in rules or legislation, executive orders, and lawsuits brought by a US government entity. This also includes federal-level audits and US government changes to the economic playing field that are specifically targetted at TikTok. The edge case where legislation has been set in motion but has not passed yet counts as YES if it seems like it has the votes to pass and NO if it doesn't (based off of my best assessment at the time). This also resolves to YES even if the ban is subsequently challenged in courts as long as the ban would take place without a successfuly challenge though note that "banned in the US" means banned for all users in the US (so for example only for one state or only for government employees doesn't meet the criterion).

Mar 31, 1:00pm: Will TikTok be banned in the US or forced to change ownership? → Will TikTok be banned in the US or forced to change ownership in 2023?

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SurajUdasi avatar
Suraj Udasibought Ṁ10 of NO

TikTok faces potential U.S. bans primarily due to security concerns. Montana is the only state that has enacted legislation banning TikTok on personal devices, with New York and Florida having their own restrictions. Concerns revolve around the Chinese government's access to user data through ByteDance. Legislation changes, like the RESTRICT Act and DATA Act, are needed to enforce a U.S. ban. TikTok's CEO proposed Project Texas, which aims to move U.S. user data to American servers, but lawmakers remain skeptical. Allegations in a lawsuit claim that the Chinese government could still access data through a backdoor portal. TikTok disputes these concerns, maintaining its data security.

The article explores issues such as the platform's popularity, its user base's demographic diversity, and concerns about retaliation against U.S. companies in China. It also mentions potential regulatory approaches rather than an outright ban.

johnboban avatar
Boban John

Yes, TikTok will be banned in the US because as per the research and data, it shows that TikTok is promoting content that is not fruitful to the young generation. Changing ownership might be a good sign in terms of data privacy but if the same thing continues then these apps might be banned as this is against US security and data stealing is a serious offense within the US.

NicoDelon avatar
Nicopredicts NO

@johnboban The question is not whether TikTok is good or even whether it should be banned but whether it will be banned or required to change ownership.

SemioticRivalry avatar
Semiotic Rivalrybought Ṁ30 of YES

@NicoDelon i think this is chatgpt

pain avatar
painbought Ṁ5 of YES

Just curious, on Montana's ban, the effect does not take place until January 2024 but the bill has been signed by the Governor of Montana. Does this resolve as Yes?

MP avatar
MPpredicts NO

@pain I think that the question meant that if a state sued TikTok to ban it federally, it would count, not that a state prohibiting on its own borders would count

pain avatar
painbought Ṁ80 of YES

@MP per this sentence in the description: "US government action" is defined to include both Federal and State-level actions including changes in rules or legislation, executive orders, and lawsuits brought by a US government entity."

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGpredicts NO

@pain but in the last sentence it says:

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellepredicts YES

@pain I think that would mean that if every state separately banned it, it would count for the market.

pain avatar
painpredicts YES

@higherLEVELING TRUE, +1 for me for not reading. Appreciate the highlight lol 👍

MP avatar
MPpredicts NO

Just created a new market on Montana's recent ban.

ShadowyZephyr avatar

How does this resolve if it is temporarily banned but then the ban is ruled unconstitutional?

Aurelius avatar
Aureliuspredicts NO

@ShadowyZephyr Still resolves to YES

MickBransfield avatar
Mick Bransfieldsold Ṁ131 of YES


"The administration is courting support on TikTok even as it has called for the platform to be sold or else risk being banned in the U.S. because of its owner's ties to China's government."

JuJumper avatar
JuJumperpredicts YES

@Aurelius please add ”(2023)” to the title.

xyz avatar
BrendanFinan avatar
Brendan Finanbought Ṁ10 of YES


Mason avatar
GPT-PBotbought Ṁ2 of YES

TikTok, TikTok, a ticking clock,
ByteDance's dilemma, a paradox.
Will they sell or face the block,
Better hurry up, before they're docked.

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polackpredicts NO

note that this means the state governments, or government contractors, intentionally placed tiktok's ad tracking code on their website to measure the effectiveness of ads they purchased on tiktok.

such as

“We work with an advertising agency to run educational campaigns that inform Utahns about how to access programs that could help them get a better job—things like getting additional training or earning a GED,” a spokeswoman for the Utah Department of Workforce Services said. The pixel was used in such a campaign, she said.

SirSalty avatar
David Chee