Resolves YES if the UK experiences a recession lasting at least 2 years, starting in 2022 or 2023. Otherwise NO. Resolves according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_Kingdom or official data.
BBC says: Bank of England expects UK to fall into longest ever recession. This is somewhat hyperbolic: The Bank of England predicts a '"very challenging" two-year slump' which would make it the "longest recession since records began" in the 1920s (the Great Depression lasted about 2 years).
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@jack final Q1 2024 GDP growth was positive, my understanding is that means the recession is over. Resolves NO?
Yeah, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_Kingdom agrees that it only lasted 2 quarters.
NIESR puts odds of a recession (no length specified) at 60% and starting by the end of 2024. It’d need to be nearly a year early for this to resolve YES. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/09/risk-of-uk-recession-at-next-general-election-is-60-says-thinktank
@Noit It came quite early! The recession had begun by the time you made this comment (though we wouldn't know it until later data). Q3 and Q4 were negative.
However, it's not projected to continue, growth is expected as early as Q1 2024.
Request for clarification: at point of resolution, is the UK expected to have been in recession for the full two years? I.e. if a recession starts in 2025, will you hold off resolution until two years has elapsed from the generally-agreed start date?
Also, what if we’re in and out of recession? If we’re in recession all of 2024, come out in Q1 of 2025, and then fall back in from Q2? Must the two years be continuous?
@Noit The criteria are "a recession lasting at least 2 years, starting in 2022 or 2023"
If a recession starts in 2025, that does not qualify.
https://bensouthwood.substack.com/p/are-we-really-going-to-have-to-do
"Not only is the Bank expecting a long recession. But they’re expecting total nominal spending, which they control, to rise 3.3%, 1.3%, and 0.7% over the next three years – compared to trend growth of around 4-5%. This will make the unavoidable downturn from higher energy costs and other supply-side problems into a much deeper and longer recession where far more people lose their jobs than really have to."
