Will the top trader on the Salem/CSPI Manifold leaderboard at end of August make a majority of their profit from one big mispricing due to excessive price slippage?
9
100Ṁ8659resolved Aug 31
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Resolves YES if on 8/31/2022 the top trader on https://salemcenter.manifold.markets/leaderboards has made a majority of their profits from a single trade or consecutive sequence of trades immediately after another trader bought or sold to a price of <1% or >99%.
Background: see https://www.cspicenter.com/p/introducing-the-salemcspi-forecasting. A number of large profits so far have been due to a trader making one large bet (e.g. M$1000) that is much larger than the liquidity pool, causing the price to move from e.g. 50% to <1%, and then the next trader was able to buy a large number of very cheap shares for a huge profit. Is this likely to remain the majority of the top profits by the end of August?
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🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ50 | |
2 | Ṁ21 | |
3 | Ṁ20 | |
4 | Ṁ17 | |
5 | Ṁ15 |