Here I will run an instance of Newcomb's problem, a decision theory thought experiment. The setup is as follows:

There are two boxes designated A and B. The player is given a choice between taking only box B or taking both boxes A and B. This market predicts which predicts whether the player takes just one box or both boxes.

• Box A always contains M$20.

• Box B contains M$200 times the probability that Manifold predicts of the player taking only one box. (E.g. if the market predicts 70% chance of taking only one box, Box 2 contains Ṁ140)

Both boxes are transparent, i.e. the player knows exactly how much mana is contained inside them.

At market close, the amount in box B will be set, and I will select a random, anonymous market participant to be the player in the Newcomb's problem. The player will decide between taking only box B or both boxes. I will send a manalink to the player for the amount of mana contained in the box or boxes they take (adjusted to remove the amount of profits/losses of their outstanding shares in the market).

This market resolves YES if they take only box B, and NO if they take both boxes.

To be eligible to be selected as the player:

• I will need to contact you off Manifold, so to be eligible you must either have a discord account which I am able to find from your profile or from the Manifold discord, or submit a way for me to contact you here: https://forms.gle/RkxRTczUDP9WPBoH8

• You must have at most 100 shares in the market at close. Shortly before close, I will most likely offer to buy shares from anyone who wishes to sell (but no promises). This is to mitigate selection effects where someone who has a large position may choose to participate or not participate based on the value of their shares.

Fine print:

• If the player doesn't respond within 2 days of being selected, I will randomly choose another participant to replace them.

• The player must agree not to have any financial interest in their decision outside of the game. If they do not agree, another participant will be randomly selected. No outside bribes or bets in derivative markets.

• There are many ways you could imagine the market uncovering the identity of the player, so I suggest treating it as what it is - a low-stakes game. Please don't rely on or try to break the anonymity too much.

• I will know the identity of the anonymous player, in order to communicate with them and send the manalink. It is possible to use cryptography to keep the player anonymous even from me, but it would be a lot more hassle, and easier just to trust me, especially given the previous point.

Related

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