If a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively (non-test) before January 1, 2024, will the first such detonation be deliberate?

This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated offensively after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024, and the first such detonation is deliberate. Resolves NO if the first such detonation is not deliberate. Resolves N/A if no such detonation occurs.

Barrett et al. (2013) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:

• In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.

• In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.

• In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.

• Offensively means neither detonations for testing purposes nor peaceful nuclear explosions will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.

I will use Metaculus decisions on https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8645/first-detonation-accidentalunauthorized/ and related questions to determine whether a nuclear weapon detonation counts as offensive and whether it counts as deliberate.