For this question, the start of reentry is defined as when Starship descends through 100km altitude, and the end of reentry is defined as when Starship descends through 25km altitude. (Main heating takes place between 65 and 35 km, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_entry)

"Exploding" here will include any Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly of Starship (the upper stage). If the booster explodes by itself, that does not matter for this question.

See also https://manifold.markets/jack/how-far-will-the-3rd-starship-test

This question is about the next (3rd) Starship mission with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) - any low altitude test does not count for example. The close date is not a deadline and will be extended as necessary until the test occurs.