Will Russian General Sergey Surovikin be demoted in rank, dismissed from the military, or killed before October?
closes Oct 1

Resolves YES if Sergey Surovikin is demoted from his current rank of General of the Army, is dismissed from the Russian military, or dies, before October 1, 2023 (Moscow time). Otherwise NO.

Update: there's recent news that Surovikin was removed as Commander in Chief of the Aerospace Forces. The above criteria are quite clear that being relieved of duties or having a change of post is not a qualifying criteria by itself, it must also comes with "demoted from his current rank of General of the Army" or "dismissed from the Russian military" to resolve YES. (To understand why the criteria are this way, consider what would have happened if he had ceased to be Commander in Chief of the Aerospace Forces because he was promoted to a different position, for example.)


In late June 2023, he was arrested, according to unconfirmed reports following alleged involvement with the Wagner Group rebellion,[9] and according to CNN was revealed to be a Wagner Group member.[10] Surovikin's daughter, in an alleged interview to a Russian Telegram channel, claimed to be in contact with her father and insisted that he had not been detained.[11]


Surovikin has been the subject of intense speculation over his role in the mutiny after the New York Times reported on Wednesday that the general “had advance knowledge of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plans to rebel against Russia’s military leadership.” The paper cited US officials who it said were briefed on US intelligence.


Documents shared exclusively with CNN suggest that a top Russian military commander, Gen. Sergey Surovikin, was a secret VIP member of Wagner, the private military company that staged a brief rebellion exposing disunity among senior Russian military officials.

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YaroslavSobolev avatar
Yaroslav Sobolevpredicts YES

The Kremlin has banned journalists from asking questions about the fate of General Surovikin.

"Sergei Shoigu yesterday left unanswered the question of journalists about a possible investigation into General Surovikin. May I ask you this question?", — the journalist asked Peskov.

“No, you can't,” he replied.

This dialogue took place at a briefing by Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov on September 5. The audio recording of the dialogue was posted on Telegram by the Mayak radio station. A question about Surovikin was asked by an AFP correspondent.

The day before, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, when asked whether an investigation was underway against Surovikin, responded: “Any other questions?” and then left. According to The New York Times, Surovikin detained after an attempted mutiny by the Wagner PMC was released from custody a few days after the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Source: https://t.me/meduzalive/90982

Медуза — LIVE
Песков не разрешил задать вопрос про генерала Суровикина. Накануне на вопрос о нем отказался отвечать Шойгу — Сергей Шойгу вчера оставил без ответа вопрос журналистов о возможном расследовании в отношении генерала Суровикина. Можно задать этот вопрос вам? — спросила Пескова журналистка. — Нет, нельзя, — ответил он. Этот диалог произошел на брифинге пресс-секретаря президента Дмитрия Пескова 5 сентября. Аудиозапись диалога выложила в телеграме радиостанция «Маяк». Вопрос про Суровикина Пескову задала корреспондент агентства AFP. Министр обороны Сергей Шойгу на брифинге 4 сентября отказался отвечать на вопрос про генерала Сергея Суровикина, который, предположительно, был задержан после мятежа Евгения Пригожина в конце июня. При этом вскоре журналистка Ксения Собчак сообщила об освобождении Суровикина. Это подтвердили источники The New York Times.
YaroslavSobolev avatar
Yaroslav Sobolevbought Ṁ500 of YES

General Sergei Surovykin was given a second "good" position instead of the head of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS). Deputy of the State Duma, retired colonel-general Viktor Zavarzyn told the publication "Podyem" about this.

"He fought well, well, the situation has passed. I know that you also found him a second position, changed him, his chief of staff executes the commands of the chief of staff, he has a second position, it's a good one, related to the CIS or whatever it's called correctly," he said.

According to Zavarzyn, "nothing terrible is happening there." He admitted that Surovykin will be on vacation for some time.

At the end of August, "RIA Novosti" and RBC reported on the release of Surovykin from the position of chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS). RIA Novosti reported that General Viktor Afzalov, the Chief of the Main Staff of the Air Force, was appointed as temporary acting responsibilities. According to the source of RBC, after his removal from the post of chief of the Air Force, Surovykin also ceased to be the deputy commander of special operations in Ukraine.

Earlier today, Surovykin's biography disappeared from the website of the Ministry of Defense, and his name also disappeared from the list of commanders-in-chief of the Russian Armed Forces.


higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGbought Ṁ30 of NO
BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicts YES

He was not only removed as Commander in Chief of the Aerospace Forces but also removed from his field command in the Special Military Operation, which is unmistakably a demotion.

2 replies
NamesAreHard avatar
NamesAreHardbought Ṁ500 of NO

@BTE The only demotion that counts for this market is if he is not a general anymore (also the removal from field command happened a while ago, before these events).

jack avatar
Jackpredicts YES

@NamesAreHard Almost, but do note that there are 4 different general ranks. If he is demoted in rank, e.g. from Army General to Colonel General, that counts.


DanielPugh avatar
Daniel Pughbought Ṁ20 of YES

So.... from the guardian website ...

"Russia has relieved Gen Sergei Surovikin of his command of the Russian aerospace forces, in the highest-level sacking yet of a military commander after Yevgeny Prigozhin’s abortive mutiny in June."

How this doesn't count as a demotion as per the main title is a bit of a mystery specific to this question ;-)


5 replies
33cb avatar
Александр Мельниковbought Ṁ85 of NO

@DanielPugh it does count if you go by the title, it's not the convention that you do, the title is free form poetry.

DanielPugh avatar
Daniel Pughsold Ṁ15 of YES

@33cb yep I sort of get it, although losing your primary job sort of counts as dismissal/demotion for most people... if a doctor had to leave their job they would still be a doctor but would have been dismissed...

jack avatar
Jackpredicts YES

The title is a summary with limited space, and the very first line of the question expands to tell you exactly what the words in the title mean. Demotion is unclear by itself - which is why the question text literally specifies what demotion means for this question.

I've squeezed a few more words in the title to make it clearer, anyway.

jack avatar
Jackpredicts YES

And to give motivation for why this is reasonable: What if in an alternate world Surovikin had been given a lateral transfer from, let's say head of the aerospace forces to head of the navy (just making up an artificial axample). It would be possible to describe that as a demotion, promotion, or neither depending on which propaganda spin you wanted. That's why a clear definition of demotion is needed.

DanielPugh avatar
Daniel Pughpredicts YES

@jack yep, like I say I get it. The question looks at dismissal from the army as opposed to the post/job. Demotion being something else entirely...

Given examples like today, I would be avoiding windows (and planes), at this point...

jskf avatar
jskfsold Ṁ254 of YES
jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ0 of NO

Just want to reiterate - at the very top of the market, it says

Resolves YES if Sergey Surovikin is demoted from his current rank of General of the Army, is dismissed from the Russian military, or dies, before October 1, 2023 (Moscow time). Otherwise NO.

Those are the criteria. "Relieved of duties" or "dismissed from the post of head of aerospace forces" is not a qualifying criteria by itself, it must also comes with "demoted from his current rank of General of the Army" or "dismissed from the Russian military" to resolve YES.

9 replies
42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistpredicts YES

@jack Well, fuck! Buying lots of YES wasn't a smart move. When do people even get demoted from their rank?

jack avatar
Jackpredicts YES

@42irrationalist It does happen as a punishment for a court-martial https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reduction_in_rank.

In the USSR, demotion in rank to private begin to see use as a punishment immediately after the creation of the red army. As a rule, it punished those who made unforgivable mistakes during combat, especially those who led to serious losses or tactical defeat. It also punished those who committed serious crimes while serving. In the second case, a demotion in rank was usually not the only punishment administered, and often accompanied an imprisonment or execution. During the second world war, those demoted in rank were not imprisoned away from the front lines but instead made to serve in the penal divisions. After the second world war, the punishment no longer meant execution or service in a penal unit, but did mean dismissal from service and forfeiture of all military awards. Most often it was imposed for serious crimes which entail criminal liability. In modern Russia this post-WW2 version of the punishment is still used.

For all we know, it could have happened already

RobertCousineau avatar
Robert Cousineau

@42irrationalist my apologies for speaking over confidently!

jack avatar
Jackpredicts YES

By the way, there is a good reason not to count a change of post for this question - because then a promotion could also potentially count. I think requiring a demotion in rank gives less wiggle room for claims about "vacation" or "being assigned a new, equally important job" or things like that.

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistsold Ṁ145 of YES


> I think requiring a demotion in rank gives less wiggle room for claims about "vacation" or "being assigned a new, equally important job" or things like that.

Avoiding counting promotions is important, but I think a lot of the time demotions are done de-facto within Russian government. Rather than getting fired explicitly a person gets a smaller and less important position.

> For all we know, it could have happened already

I am not even sure it can be done without a court decision.

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ0 of NO


I think a lot of the time demotions are done de-facto within Russian government. Rather than getting fired explicitly a person gets a smaller and less important position.

I agree, but I would think that if Putin knew that one of his generals had participated in a coup attempt, then he wouldn't just be relegated to a less important position. Unless Putin wanted to keep it quieter, I suppose - but he could also force him to resign for some made-up reason.

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistpredicts YES

@jack Hm, yeah, this makes sense. But I assume people play politics all the time and align with all sorts of different people so I'd assume he'd be fired if his involvement and role is beyond question.

DanielPugh avatar
Daniel Pughpredicts YES

@42irrationalist surely relieved from his command counts here. If it doesn't then what would??

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistpredicts YES

@DanielPugh Him losing his military rank (it's a separate thing from a specific role in the military).

33cb avatar

@42irrationalist his position as chief airplane guy is not part of the criteria, what matters is his rank and "employment status".

33cb avatar
Александр Мельниковbought Ṁ0 of NO

@33cb Maybe it's a sure bet that he loses his rank now, nobody has any clue.