This question will resolve as YES if Russia detonates a nuclear weapon in any country other than Ukraine or Russia after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise NO.
For the purposes of this question, a country's territory will include the 12 nautical mile territorial sea.
For the purposes of this question, Ukrainian territory will be defined as internationally recognized prior to 2014 (that is, including Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk)
To qualify, the nuclear weapon must be detonated less than 100 kilometers above Earth's mean sea level.
A test detonation would count towards question resolution.
Any of a deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonation would count towards question resolution.
Determination of whether a nuclear detonation was by Russia will be based on reliable media reporting.
1,000
3.00My forecast is based primarily on https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2nDTrDPZJBEerZGrk/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022 (a forecasting team with a strong track record).
They forecast the probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine in the next year at 16%. Conditional on that, they forecast the probability of nuclear conflict beyond Ukraine in the next year at 9.6% (so 1.5% probability of both happening).