This question will resolve as YES if Russia detonates a nuclear weapon after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise NO.

• A test detonation would count towards question resolution.

• Any of a deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonation would count towards question resolution.

• Determination of whether a nuclear detonation was by Russia will be based on reliable media reporting.

See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.