Will Parag Agrawal (former Twitter CEO) successfully make Musk pay the full agreed severance before 2024?
57
1.1kṀ14k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

As part of the merger agreement, top Twitter executives were set to receive severance payments aka "golden parachutes" if they were fired. But Elon Musk is trying to get out of this agreement by claiming to fire them "for cause".

Resolves YES if Twitter ends up paying Parag Agrawal the full agreed amount of $57.4m, by end of 2023, according to reliable media reports. Resolves N/A if it is substantially unclear whether such payment happened. Otherwise resolves NO.

(Note: if the full payment is made, it counts even if Agrawal has to pay legal fees to force it to happen. Partial payment would not count.)

Background

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/29/technology/twitter-layoffs-musk-jobs.html

Mr. Musk also appears unlikely to pay the golden parachutes that the fired top executives of Twitter were set to receive. Under the merger agreement, those executives — including Parag Agrawal, the chief executive — had been set to receive compensation of $20 million to $60 million if they were fired. But Mr. Musk terminated the executives “for cause,” meaning he did it because he alleged he had justification, which may void that agreement, two people with knowledge of the matter said.

Those executives, who also include the former chief financial officer Ned Segal, the former general counsel Sean Edgett, and the former top policy and legal executive Vijaya Gadde, are deliberating their next steps, one person said.

Matt Levine writes in https://news.bloomberglaw.com/securities-law/matt-levines-money-stuff-elon-musk-is-busy-with-twitter

I don’t know if you noticed, but I have spent much of the last six months writing about how Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, doesn’t really care about his contractual obligations.

I want to make a couple of points here. One is, I cannot believe we’re doing this again.

Another point is that he absolutely did not fire them for cause, as you can easily tell by reading their employment agreements. [1]  Here is the definition of “cause”:

Source for the amounts: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/10/29/twitter-executives-payouts-musk/

Former chief executive Parag Agrawal will receive $57.4 million, former chief financial officer Ned Segal gets $44.5 million, and former head of legal policy, trust and safety Vijaya Gadde will receive $20 million, Equilar said, citing U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings.

Added "full" to title to make it more explicit (no change to the resolution criteria): Will Parag Agrawal (former Twitter CEO) successfully make Musk pay the agreed severance? → Will Parag Agrawal (former Twitter CEO) successfully make Musk pay the full agreed severance?

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Musk claimed in filing today to dismiss suit that because he didn’t sign the page of the merger agreement that addressed employee compensation he isn’t obligated to anything stipulated in that bit! And this guy is like 52 years old or something!! Trump’s childish behavior has poisoned the privileged class for decades to come…

https://www.reuters.com/legal/x-musk-seek-dismissal-lawsuit-over-ex-twitter-workers-severance-pay-2023-08-01/

predictedYES

Dudes only want one thing and it’s $54m for being the worst and least charismatic ceo in history

I think there are plenty of outcomes that involve him "winning" but taking less than the full amount.

@Adam Agreed. But I wanted to ask about the full amount because just like with the Twitter acquisition, I don't think Musk has any leg to stand on here and it seems quite possible he could just totally and completely lose (again)

predictedNO

@jack Yeah, I agree specifying "full amount" selects for an interesting and distinct set of information, just not sure the bettors here appreciate it fully

@Adam Good point, I will reword to make it clearer

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