Resolves YES if North Korea tests a nuclear weapon by Feb 16, 2023 at 11:59pm local time in Korea. NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on reliable media reporting.
Background
In 2022, North Korea conducted a large number of ballistic missile tests and announced their intent to expand their nuclear arsenal. North Korea has done 6 nuclear tests (see Wikipedia's list here), the first in 2006 and the most recent in 2017. South Korean and US intelligence indicated that North Korea had completed preparations for a nuclear test. Satellite imagery showed the reopening of their underground nuclear test site (previously closed in 2018).
One analyst thinks the next test will be held no later than Feb. 16:
https://koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/01/103_342824.html?utm_source=go
With intelligence reports showing North Korea is set for another nuclear weapons test, when ― rather than whether ― it will proceed has become a geopolitical guessing game. One expert believes that the test will be conducted within the next seven weeks.
According to Cheong Seong-chang, a senior analyst on North Korea at the Sejong Institute, a think tank, leader Kim Jong-un will likely order the test to be held no later than Feb. 16, the anniversary of the birth of his father, Kim Jong-il. If not, two other likely dates for testing would be his own birthday (Jan. 8) or the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army (Feb. 8), North Korea's military forces.
Related
See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.
This is a follow-up question to
1,000
3.00https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20230202000735
North Korea is already prepared to conduct another nuclear test, but is biding its time to gain leverage in negotiations with China and other powers, according to Rep. Tae Yong-ho, a former North Korean diplomat who was elected into the South Korean parliament after defecting in 2016.