Resolves YES if in either Season 4 or Season 5, Leagues does not count unrealized profits. If it counts all realized profits, or if it counts only profits on resolved questions (a subset of realized profits), that would count as YES. (If leagues ceases to exist in Season 4 or 5, or no longer counts profits at all, resolves N/A.)
Pros:
Counting unrealized profits is only "accurate" if the market price is "correct". It creates an incentive to manipulate market prices to create paper profits.
Unrealized profits are often highly volatile
Cons:
You don't immediately benefit (or lose) for predictions made for later months. (Although if https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-leagues-profit-be-calculated-o is changed as well, those will eventually count in the month in which the question resolves.)
Also note, counting realized profits on unresolved questions might create problematic incentives as well - you might want to sell your position to realize the profits for league standings, or you might want to wait so you can count them next month. So I believe it would be better to count only resolved questions.
For this question it doesn't matter what non-profit numbers are included in Leagues (e.g. bonuses, etc)
Related: https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-leagues-profit-be-calculated-o
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ27 | |
| 2 | Ṁ10 | |
| 3 | Ṁ3 | |
| 4 | Ṁ2 | |
| 5 | Ṁ2 |
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I think this is a good idea, especially when you consider profit on all questions that resolved this month (including bets from previous months).
There's a decent chance we'll end up here, but I want to try another variant first with unrealized profit including all your bets.
One advantage to unrealized profit is that it live updates, which is fun and more like the real stock market.
Also, many users might only bet in a couple markets which might not resolve, so they would just have 0 profit the whole month with this scoring.
If you're using realized profits and considering the entire portfolio, you could also end up in scenarios where someone wins their league while doing nothing because they made good bets a long time ago. Perhaps this could be fixed by giving increased weight to recently profitable bets?
I would also be concerned that this would incentivize people to sell off their positions early just to win leagues, even when they don't actually need the mana right now. There could even be strange situations where you sell your position to win leagues, then immediately re-bet the mana on the same question.
@Joshua I would only include realized profit on resolved questions, as Jack suggested.
Also, I don't think it's a big deal that someone would win the league while not being active. That's kind of cool actually.