Will Leagues profit be calculated on bets made before the season by Season 5?

Question

This is the same as https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-leagues-profit-be-calculated-o but including Season 5.

Resolves YES if League profits include any bets made before the season. Resolves NO if League profits only include bets made during the season.

Also related: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-leagues-profit-count-only-real

Here's James's description:

I'm looking for further input and analysis from the community on this question!

Originallly we concieved of leagues as a mini-game that restarts from scratch each month, so any older bets were discounted.

But the idea of including profit on your entire portfolio (all shares that you own) is starting to grow on me!

Pros

Simpler: League profit equivalent to your profit this month

Long term bets will pay off at some point for leagues

Fluctuations always have consequences: if you gain at one point, you will lose at another point

Fixes the unintuitive case where selling out of a position at a profit leads to a loss if prices keeps trending in same direction

Cons

Means a lot of your performance is determined from past bets, rather than specifically the work you put in this month. E.g. large positions from previous bets could ensure victory or doom you.

Means the leagues computation is more complex in that it considers more bets. If you inspect a users' profit and loss, there could be like a thousand markets contributing to their profit. Technically, this is not so difficult. The UX might be a bit worse.

What do you think?

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Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Sep 6, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.