Will I be in the top 5 of the top creators leaderboard by July 10?
7
369Ṁ18kresolved Jul 4
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
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Will I be in the top 5 of the "Top creators" of https://manifold.markets/leaderboards at any time before July 10 (one month from the date I created this market)?
To deal with edge cases where e.g. the leaderboard changes quickly and I'm on and off again before anyone notices, I'll say that it resolves YES if either I notice this or someone screenshots it. Resolves NO if not. Resolves N/A if the leaderboard no longer exists or no longer reflects some measure of top market creators across Manifold.
As of this writing, I am at 15 with total bet M$54,998
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| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ194 | |
| 2 | Ṁ131 | |
| 3 | Ṁ32 | |
| 4 | Ṁ20 | |
| 5 | Ṁ8 |
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Some thoughts: it is not hard to manipulate the leaderboard stats by betting in your own markets. I didn't go out of my way to manipulate the stats (e.g. no creating spam markets or making spam bets), but I did increase the amount bet in my markets substantially by doing normal profitable things like betting 10k on my markets before resolving yes/no.
One suggestion I've seen is to exclude the author's bets in the metric. This might be reasonable, but I don't think it's that great because any whale betting a large amount in the market functions pretty similarly. Perhaps a more interesting metric is number of users who bet in the market. Or a "quadratic voting" style metric that factors in amount bet per user and is higher if more users bet a small amount than if a single user bets a large amount.
@jack I was just thinking the same thing. With my current balance I could buy my way to your #5 market creator spot in about 10 minutes for ~M$800 (far less if selling shares counts towards volume). I agree there are a lot of interesting metrics we could use instead.
@wasabipesto Yeah, exactly. (I believe selling shares does not count towards the leaderboard stat, but it does count towards market volume.)