Will any of the first 5 named hurricanes of the Atlantic Hurricane Season make landfall?
7
100Ṁ690Nov 30
28%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Named Hurricane
Reliable source reports it as making landfall as a hurricane
2025 hurricane season (before, during, after)
Update 2025-09-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If there are fewer than 5 named hurricanes in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, this market will resolve NO rather than waiting for future seasons/storms.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Seems like it might be none from 4 if this is correct about Imelda passing just south of Bermuda.
So chance should be below 20%? Or could there be a reliable report from elsewhere?
The center of Imelda passed just south of Bermuda a few hours ago,
with sustained hurricane force winds reported at one of the
elevated stations there.
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