This is effectively guaranteed to resolve YES, every model shows Melissa making landfall in Jamaica or Cuba (likely Jamaica) as a hurricane

(technically the GFS misses both of those but it's an extreme outlier & still ends up making landfall in the Turks & Caicos)

@SaviorofPlant Naarh it is going to do a loop around Jamaca then head between gap between Haiti and Cuba. ;)

Seems like it might be none from 4 if this is correct about Imelda passing just south of Bermuda.
So chance should be below 20%? Or could there be a reliable report from elsewhere?

The center of Imelda passed just south of Bermuda a few hours ago,
with sustained hurricane force winds reported at one of the
elevated stations there.

If there are fewer than 5 hurricanes in 2025 does this resolve no or wait for 5 to be reached counting 2026 hurricanes as part of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?
(I would prefer not to have to wait for resolution but maybe "2025 hurricane season (before, during, after)" means we have to wait?

@Predictor ^

@ChristopherRandles Would resolve no.