Resolves to YES if Santos officially is sworn in as a member of the US House of Representatives on Jan 3 (the start of the next term of Congress), by 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise NO.
Context: Santos, who was elected to Congress in November 2022, was discovered to have fabricated his resume and admitted to it and is now facing a number of investigations.
Note the swearing in ceremony takes place after the Speaker election. See https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL30725 if you want the bureacratic details. Nobody is sworn in until a Speaker is elected.
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1,000
3.00I hope you did, but if you didn't, and if you or anyone else feels that their trades were based on a misreading of the question and feel tricked, let me know and I may try to refund you, because I don't want that. (Although it's complicated because I was also arbitraging this with https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-next-speaker-of-the-house-966f4762afca so my profits on this market are partly netted out by losses on that market.)
My original motivation for creating this was the lack of clarity on a very similar question https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-george-santos-be-sworn-in-as-a. I did try to make it clear that the Speaker election was important in the market description, but in retrospect I probably should have put it in the title too. If I were winning on someone else's market because I figured out the Speaker/oath of office rules before the market did, that's just well-earned profits, but as a market author I feel I generally speaking have a duty to try to inform people of these sorts of things (which is why I put it in the market description and comments).
@jack I don't feel like you did anything disingenuous here.
I did misread the market and mentally was just betting on whether he'd be barred somehow extra-procedurally from swearing in, which on its own, felt to me like it belonged around the ~5% mark of 'sure enough to put that much of my bankroll behind.'
That said, that misreading was my mistake, and I'm content to own it as a mistake that I made, not as an action taken against me.
I should have taken time to understand why the market was as soft as it was at 75% at the time I made the initial bet, and then again when it bounced off a limit order you had placed at 95%. I view that as me having been given 2 chances to understand what was wrong, and me failing to take either signal into consideration.