Will Chinese military aircraft enter Taiwan's territorial airspace in August? (Potential response if Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan)
31
6
118
resolved Sep 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if multiple reliable media publications report that Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan's territorial airspace (the airspace above Taiwan's territorial waters, extending 12 nautical miles from its coastline) in August.

Background: With a potential visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, China has pressured/threatened the US to prevent the visit. https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/politics/pelosi-taiwan-china-concerns/index.html

Biden administration officials are concerned that China could seek to declare a no-fly zone over Taiwan ahead of a possible visit by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as an effort to upend the trip, potentially raising tensions even further in the region, a US official told CNN.

China could also respond by flying fighter jets further into Taiwan’s self-declared air defense zone, which could trigger a response from Taiwan and the US, the official added. They did not detail what a possible response would entail.

China has sent warplanes into Taiwan’s self-declared air defense zone identification zone many times in recent months, an act which does not violate any international law but which usually results in Taiwan taking precautionary defensive measures, including sometimes scrambling its fighter jets.

Chinese planes have not entered the island’s territorial airspace – the area extending 12 nautical miles from its coastline.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ252
2Ṁ45
3Ṁ23
4Ṁ17
5Ṁ16
Sort by:

Resolves NO

https://www.wsj.com/articles/taiwan-warns-of-counterattack-if-china-violates-territorial-waters-airspace-11661948921

There are no indications that any Chinese military aircraft or warships have gone within 12 nautical miles of Taiwan’s main island, though the PLA did designate live-fire zones inside the 12-mile boundary for drills it conducted earlier this month.

predicted YES
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/02/politics/nancy-pelosi-visit-taipei-taiwan-trip/index.html > Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense said that 21 Chinese warplanes made incursions into its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on Tuesday. In response, the Taiwanese military issued radio warnings and deployed air defense missile systems to monitor the activities, it added. > China frequently sends warplanes into Taiwan's self-declared ADIZ. The highest number of incursions ever recorded was on October 4 last year, when 56 military planes flew into the area on the same day. An ADIZ is unilaterally imposed and distinct from sovereign airspace, which is defined under international law as extending 12 nautical miles from a territory's shoreline.