Will ChatGPT/Claude pick a debate winner?
Basic
8
Ṁ4435
resolved Jun 29
Resolved
NO
Claude picks winner
Resolved
NO
ChatGPT picks winner

See https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid

If when given the exact prompt there, Claude/ChatGPT outputs a choice of winner, resolves YES, otherwise NO

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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sold Ṁ28 YES

Both failed to pick a winner at first, and so it resolves NO.

But we were able to get them to pick winners with just slightly tweaked prompts.

See https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid

Oops I had the yes/no reversed in the description because I had decided to flip it to be less confusing, but apparently messed up. Sorry! So the title and the answer text matched each other but not the description. Please comment if you bet based on they pick the winner being yes, or no.

bought Ṁ500 NO

Thanks. Good luck.

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