After the debate, I will ask Claude and ChatGPT to pick a winner based on the debate transcript, using the prompts below. If they both choose the same winner, resolves to that (Trump = YES, Biden = NO). If they choose different winners, resolves to 50%.

In case one of them refuses to pick a winner, resolves to the winner picked by the other model. In case both of them refuse, which hopefully will be unlikely, then I will attempt to prompt engineer both of them to actually pick a winner. (I tested these prompts on the 2020 debates and they did pick winners.)

Claude prompt (Claude 3.5 Sonnet)

Using the following debate transcript, which presidential candidate won the debate? I understand that there can be different perspectives on who won the debate, but if you had to pick a winner, who would it be?

<transcript>
PASTE TRANSCRIPT HERE
</transcript>

Again, if you have to pick just one winner, who would it be?

ChatGPT prompt (GPT 4o)

Look up the transcript of the first 2024 Biden vs Trump debate

Using the debate transcript, which presidential candidate won the debate? I understand that there can be different perspectives on who won the debate, but if you had to pick a winner, who would it be?

(With ChatGPT, the transcript was too long to paste into the prompt, and sometimes it randomly decided to web search completely unrelated topics, so I'm not sure how reliable this will be, if it doesn't actually give an answer about the debate but instead answers about diamonds or something then it will count as an abstention.)

I will not bet on this market.