Will Bolsonaro concede the election by Nov 7?
71
198
1.4K
resolved Nov 8
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if by end of day Nov 7 (Brazil local time), Bolsonaro officially concedes the election, as reported by reliable media publications. Otherwise NO.

Background:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/30/world/americas/bolsonaro-election-results.html "Bolsonaro lost. Will he accept the results?"

Longer-dated question:

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predicted NO

I don't see any new news. Resolves NO later today unless I missed something.

Here's two longer dated markets:

predicted NO

@jack Resolves NO. He won't ever concede explicetly. He conceded implicitly and people have moved on and Lula is already governing and life will continue.

predicted NO

@MP Yeah, that's the impression I'm getting too.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

https://manifold.markets/challenges/FranklinBaldo/will-bolsanaro-concede-the-election/for31RdW

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@FranklinBaldo Accepted! Out of curiosity, why did you decide to make a challenge bet as opposed to just making a regular bet?

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@jack Oh crap!

@FranklinBaldo Hmm? Was it a mistake or something? If yes, I can reverse it with you.

sold Ṁ26 of YES

@jack A mistake for sure. I already sell it. It's ok.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

No chance.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@belikewater Agreed, this will never happen.

bought Ṁ220 of NO

Arbing the two markets. Not sure if @NathanpmYoung knows something I don't haha.

predicted YES

@jack Naah I was way too gonzo.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/01/americas/bolsonaro-brazil-elections-protests-intl-latam/index.html "Brazil’s Bolsonaro signals cooperation with transfer of power, but does not concede election defeat"

bought Ṁ100 of YES