This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated offensively after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise NO.

• Offensively means neither detonations for testing purposes nor peaceful nuclear explosions will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.

• A deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonation would result in the question resolving as YES.

I will use Metaculus decisions on https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7457/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050/ and/or https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/no-non-test-nuclear-detonations-by-2024-01-01/ to determine whether a nuclear weapon detonation counts as offensive or not.