Resolves YES if the 30-year fixed rate mortgage average on May 22 2027 shown on https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms is strictly greater than the current value of 5.25%. Here's another view of the same data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US.
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Mortgage rates apparently track long-term treasury yields pretty closely (10-year especially): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=PQqZ and https://money.com/mortgage-rate-forecasts-consumers-vs-experts/. So forecasts on long-term treasury yields provide good information about expected mortgage rates. I haven't been able to find much good long-range forecasts of either, but there are some 5-year forecasts e.g. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52391 predicts 10-year treasury yields will average 3.6% over the next 5 years, which would imply a ~5.5% average mortgage rate.
Relevant forecast: https://kalshi.com/events/FRMMAX-22DEC29/markets/FRMMAX-22DEC29-P5.5 forecasts that the peak mortgage rate during 2022 will be >6% with probability 60%.
My bigger concern is whether rates will keep going up over the next 5 to 30 years or go back down.
For further context: Ideally I'd like to be able to model trends of interest rates over the next few decades and do Monte Carlo simulations of those to optimize decisions at each point in time (fixed vs adjustable rate mortgage, refinancing when rates are lower).
This market is a starting point, because I've seen massively varied beliefs about where interest rates are likely to trend in the next 5 to 30 years.
If anyone has found good research, forecasting, models, etc on the topic - please let me know! I would be happy to reward research via liquidity injection or direct mana transfer as well.
I am currently planning a home purchase and the probable changes to mortgage or interest rates is an important factor in deciding what type of mortgage to get.
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