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MANIFOLD
Who will be the next (5th) Republican nominee for Speaker of the House?
6
αΉ€605αΉ€6.5k
resolved Oct 25
100%99.7%
Mike Johnson (4th nominee) elected Speaker
0.0%
Jim Jordan
0.0%
Patrick McHenry
0.0%
Steve Scalise
0.0%
Donald Trump
0.0%
Kevin McCarthy
0.0%
Tom Emmer
0.0%
No nominee or Speaker by end of November
0.0%
Mark Green
0.0%
Austin Scott
0.0%
Byron Donalds
0.0%
Kevin Hern
0.0%
Jack Bergman
0.0%
Jodey Arrington
0.0%
Tom Cole
0.0%
Katherine Clark
0.0%Other

Resolves to:

  • The next person after Mike Johnson who wins the Republican nomination for Speaker of the House in a ballot among Republican members.

  • Otherwise, "Mike Johnson (4th nominee) elected Speaker" if he wins the Speakership (without the selection of a 5th nominee)

  • If neither happens by the end of November, resolves to "No nominee or Speaker by end of November"

(The previous GOP nominees were Scalise, Jordan, and Emmer)

  • The next nominee can be Scalise, Jordan, or Emmer if they win the nomination again. It cannot be Mike Johnson, only when there is a different nominee does it resolve to that nominee.

  • Note that this definition of nominee is not the same as being nominated on the House floor for the full House ballot (Scalise and Emmer were Republican nominees but were never nominated on the House floor.)

  • In the event that the next House floor vote for Speaker takes place without the selection of a GOP nominee, resolves to the person who receives the most votes from Republicans on that House floor vote.

  • If the GOP changes its rules to select more than one nominee at the same time, resolves equally to the nominees.

  • Unelected or temporary Speakers (e.g. Speaker Pro Tempore) will not count toward resolution.

  • Any additional answer that is not a specific person is disqualified. If there are duplicate answers, all but the first duplicate is disqualified.


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