Resolves:

• YES if the next Republican nominee wins the election to become Speaker of the House,

• NO if a different Republican nominee is selected afterwards,

whichever occurs first.

(The previous GOP nominees were Scalise, Jordan, and Emmer)

• The Republican nominee is the person who wins the Republican nomination for Speaker of the House in a ballot among Republican members. (In the event that a House floor vote for Speaker takes place without the selection of a nominee by Republican ballot, it's defined as the person who receives the most votes from Republicans on that House floor vote.) See https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-be-the-next-4th-republican

• Unelected or temporary Speakers (e.g. Speaker Pro Tempore) will not count toward resolution.

• If the nominee drops out, that is not sufficient for a NO resolution because they might walk it back. It resolves NO when a different Republican nominee is selected.

• The close date will be extended as needed and does not affect resolution of the market. (standard rule)

• If person A is the next nominee, then drops out and person B becomes the following nominee, then B drops out, and then A ends up winning the Speakership, that's still a NO resolution.

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