Will the next (4th) Republican nominee for Speaker of the House succeed?

Question

Resolves:

YES if the next Republican nominee wins the election to become Speaker of the House,

NO if a different Republican nominee is selected afterwards,

whichever occurs first.

(The previous GOP nominees were Scalise, Jordan, and Emmer)

The Republican nominee is the person who wins the Republican nomination for Speaker of the House in a ballot among Republican members. (In the event that a House floor vote for Speaker takes place without the selection of a nominee by Republican ballot, it's defined as the person who receives the most votes from Republicans on that House floor vote.) See https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-be-the-next-4th-republican

Unelected or temporary Speakers (e.g. Speaker Pro Tempore) will not count toward resolution.

If the nominee drops out, that is not sufficient for a NO resolution because they might walk it back. It resolves NO when a different Republican nominee is selected.

The close date will be extended as needed and does not affect resolution of the market. (standard rule)

If person A is the next nominee, then drops out and person B becomes the following nominee, then B drops out, and then A ends up winning the Speakership, that's still a NO resolution.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Oct 25, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.