Which of Manifold's supported charities will I believe is most effective?
6
540Ṁ317resolved May 8
15%Other
5%
Malaria Consortium
0.3%
GiveDirectly
0.3%
ProPublica
6%
The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security
0.4%
World Resources Institute
0.0%
New Incentives
16%
QURI
6%
ALLFED
1.4%
GiveWell
Which of the charities on https://manifold.markets/charity will I judge most effective and therefore choose to donate to? Obviously the purpose of this market is to help myself and others make a more effective choice so comments and discussion are of course welcome.
Here is some context about my beliefs/opinions:
- I'm an effective altruist
- I tend towards high-EV opportunities even if they have higher uncertainty/variance (i.e. GiveWell is great but I don't limit myself to high-evidence opportunities only)
- I care about the long-term future
- I focus on humans (not animals)
Also note:
- It is possible that new charities will be suggested and added and then I might choose one of those.
- I may choose to donate to multiple charities, in which case this will resolve based on my percentage allocation.
Next I'll probably also set up some sort of market on "which of these charities will be judged most effective by some external assessment/criteria" but I'll have to think about how to set up the resolution criteria for that.
Apr 30, 3:13pm: Note that since I talked with Manifold folks today they've already added EA funds and a few others! Also, I think this market would be more useful if it was less about Manifold's existing list of charities and more about what charities we should put on the list. Based on the very fast response time I am very confident that more new charities that do well on this market will be added!
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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