Which of Manifold's supported charities will I believe is most effective?
Which of the charities on https://manifold.markets/charity will I judge most effective and therefore choose to donate to? Obviously the purpose of this market is to help myself and others make a more effective choice so comments and discussion are of course welcome. Here is some context about my beliefs/opinions: - I'm an effective altruist - I tend towards high-EV opportunities even if they have higher uncertainty/variance (i.e. GiveWell is great but I don't limit myself to high-evidence opportunities only) - I care about the long-term future - I focus on humans (not animals) Also note: - It is possible that new charities will be suggested and added and then I might choose one of those. - I may choose to donate to multiple charities, in which case this will resolve based on my percentage allocation. Next I'll probably also set up some sort of market on "which of these charities will be judged most effective by some external assessment/criteria" but I'll have to think about how to set up the resolution criteria for that. Apr 30, 3:13pm: Note that since I talked with Manifold folks today they've already added EA funds and a few others! Also, I think this market would be more useful if it was less about Manifold's existing list of charities and more about what charities we should put on the list. Based on the very fast response time I am very confident that more new charities that do well on this market will be added!
On second thought, I think this market would be more useful if it was less about Manifold's existing list of charities and more about what charities we should put on the list. To that end, I will note that since I talked with them this morning they've already added EA funds and a few others!
Malaria Consortium is currently GiveWell's top charity, based on the fact that it is listed first on https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities and also that it received the highest amount of the recent grant from GiveWell's Maximum Impact Fund. So I consider this a strong "baseline" contender.
Based on the discussion here, my current top choice remains the Long Term Future Fund (which was added shortly after I suggested it in this market). It's interesting to note that the Long Term Future Fund was one of the funders of Manifold. Given that I think LTFF is my top charity identified so far, donating M$ back to them ends up being approximately net neutral. I am inclined to believe that the most effective use of M$ is on Manifold itself, towards developing better forecasting and using that to improve the world. Of course, as a relatively active user of Manifold I'm probably biased towards believing in the value of forecasting. A few comments on some of the runner ups discussed here: I also like QURI as a forecasting-focused research organization, for the same reason I like Manifold. I like The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and ALLFED for similar reasons as I like LTFF, but I don't feel qualified to evaluate them based on my limited research so far, so I defer to the LTFF's expertise. Comparing LTFF to the the global health and development space (GiveWell etc): It is very hard to directly compare this cause area to global development, but some surveys at https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nws5pai9AB6dCQqxq/how-are-resources-in-effective-altruism-allocated-across indicate that the Effective Altruism community thinks global health/development is currently the most overweighted area of investment and the long-term future area is the most underweighted. This isn't to say that global health/development isn't important, but that it's relatively much better recognized, and that longtermist causes may be most neglected and therefore contributions there have strong potential impact. Also, I think there's a significant chance that work in this area will be important and impactful in the next few decades, not just the far future.