When will Manifold know who the next Speaker is? (with ~95% confidence)
25
Ṁ945Ṁ9.6kresolved Oct 25
100%98.8%
Oct 22 - Oct 31
0.1%
Oct 9 - Oct 11
0.3%
Oct 12 - Oct 14
0.5%
Oct 15 - Oct 21
0.3%
After Oct 31
Resolves to the earliest date when the price of https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-0b49bf53ad12 for the candidate who ultimately becomes Speaker is displayed in the price graph as at least 95% (rounded to the nearest integer) and remains as such for a continuous 24 hour period. The resolution is to the start of that 24 hour period.
This question will use the date in Eastern Time
See also:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ528 | |
| 2 | Ṁ208 | |
| 3 | Ṁ99 | |
| 4 | Ṁ47 | |
| 5 | Ṁ43 |