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When will Polymarket know who the next Speaker is? (with ~95% confidence)
9
Ṁ425Ṁ6.8k
resolved Oct 25
100%99.1%
Oct 22 - Oct 31
0.2%
Oct 9 - Oct 11
0.2%
Oct 12 - Oct 14
0.2%
Oct 15 - Oct 21
0.2%
After Oct 31

Resolves to the earliest date when the price of "Yes" shares in https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-speaker for the candidate who ultimately becomes Speaker is displayed in the price graph as at least 95% (rounded to the nearest integer) and remains as such for a continuous 24 hour period. The resolution is to the start of that 24 hour period.

  • This question will use the date in Eastern Time

  • The price graph by default displays the price rounded to the nearest integer percent (with 0.5% rounding up). So, the price being at least 95% when rounded is equivalent to the exact price being at least 94.5%. You can show the exact price by clicking the settings on the polymarket graph (gear icon) and toggling "Decimals" on.

  • Polymarket displays the price in cents; % and cents mean the same thing here

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