From https://help.manifold.markets/manifold-charitable-donation-program
Manifold for Good has received grants totaling $500k from the Center for Effective Altruism (via the FTX Future Fund) to support our charitable endeavors. As of the time of this writing, every unit of mana is fully backed by corresponding charitable funding—but this may not be true in the future.
When that grant runs out, will mana donations continue?
Resolves YES if the grant runs out and it remains possible to donate 100 mana for $1 USD (it could be funded by a new grant or by Manifold's other funds).
Resolves NO if the grant runs out and this causes Manifold to end the charitable donation program, or modify it such that it is no longer possible to donate 100 mana for $1 USD. It also counts as NO if Manifold ends the charitable donation program before the grant runs out, but the limited amount of funds in the grant were the direct cause of the end of the charitable donation program (e.g. if they had other funds in the grant already budgeted for some other program).
Resolves N/A if something else causes Manifold to end the charitable donation program (such as limitations imposed by Stripe, as almost happened here: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Charity-program-ending-March-1st-ac5da2d66e9d4306a917e3dd653b9cea).
This market remains open until one of the above happens.
Resolution will be based on statements made by the Manifold team.
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Related questions
@IsaacKing The whole point of the question was to predict a potential exchange rate change or anything else that could cause mana to be worth less, after the grant ran out. This would be a clear NO if it was "will the charity program continue with 100 mana = $1".
The reason it is N/A is that this question is "when the grant runs out" and clearly specifies "Resolves N/A if something else causes Manifold to end the charitable donation program" which is what happened
@jack Hmm, but don't you say elsewhere that you consider charity donations to still exist, since people can just withdraw real money and then donate it?
Resolves YES if the grant runs out and it remains possible to donate 100 mana for $1 USD (it could be funded by a new grant or by Manifold's other funds).
Resolves NO if the grant runs out and this causes Manifold to end the charitable donation program, or modify it such that it is no longer possible to donate 100 mana for $1 USD.
Resolves N/A if something else causes Manifold to end the charitable donation program
Neither of the YES or NO conditions happened and can ever happen, because the modification happened already and was not caused by the grant running out.
Can't answer without stats. How much has already gone, how much further can what's left stretch considering the $10000 a month cap on donations implemented Jan 2024.
I really wanna know as well, how much charity has been donated this month so far, so I can tell if it's worth donating or not, I don't want to put my last $20 worth of mana in, only for it to evaporate thanks to the cap being reached ahead.
Stats.
@VAPOR AFAIK what has been donated so far is the amount listed on Manifold for Charity plus whatever goes into Manifund, which includes Austin's $100k in mana which will go into ACX grants. So I think about half of the original grant is gone.