When the current $500k grant for Manifold For Charity runs out, will the charity program continue (with 100 mana = $1)
14
109
250
2031
55%
chance

From https://help.manifold.markets/manifold-charitable-donation-program

Manifold for Good has received grants totaling $500k from the Center for Effective Altruism (via the FTX Future Fund) to support our charitable endeavors. As of the time of this writing, every unit of mana is fully backed by corresponding charitable funding—but this may not be true in the future.

When that grant runs out, will mana donations continue?

Resolves YES if the grant runs out and it remains possible to donate 100 mana for $1 USD (it could be funded by a new grant or by Manifold's other funds).

Resolves NO if the grant runs out and this causes Manifold to end the charitable donation program, or modify it such that it is no longer possible to donate 100 mana for $1 USD. It also counts as NO if Manifold ends the charitable donation program before the grant runs out, but the limited amount of funds in the grant were the direct cause of the end of the charitable donation program (e.g. if they had other funds in the grant already budgeted for some other program).

Resolves N/A if something else causes Manifold to end the charitable donation program (such as limitations imposed by Stripe, as almost happened here: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Charity-program-ending-March-1st-ac5da2d66e9d4306a917e3dd653b9cea).

This market remains open until one of the above happens.

Resolution will be based on statements made by the Manifold team.

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Can't answer without stats. How much has already gone, how much further can what's left stretch considering the $10000 a month cap on donations implemented Jan 2024.

I really wanna know as well, how much charity has been donated this month so far, so I can tell if it's worth donating or not, I don't want to put my last $20 worth of mana in, only for it to evaporate thanks to the cap being reached ahead.

Stats.

predicts NO

@VAPOR AFAIK what has been donated so far is the amount listed on Manifold for Charity plus whatever goes into Manifund, which includes Austin's $100k in mana which will go into ACX grants. So I think about half of the original grant is gone.

@Shump $250000 left, 25 months if 10k hits every month, resolves in 7 years.

bought Ṁ25 NO from 35% to 31%