The probability this resolves YES is the market probability at close
Resolved
YES
Jun 16
M$5,883 bet
Let p be the market probability at close (a number between 0 and 1). I will generate a random number r between 0 and 1 using the procedure described below, and this resolves YES if r < p. (If you don't care about the details of the random number generation, just imagine that we use random.org to generate a random number between 0 and 1, but in such a way that everyone can verify that there was no cheating.) The random number will be generated by using the bitcoin blockchain as a public randomness beacon. Using the data at https://www.blockchain.com/btc/blocks?page=1, take the earliest block mined after the market close that receives at least 3 confirmations. Take the last 8 hexadecimal digits of the hash, convert that to an integer, and divide by 16^8. This results in a random number between 0 and 1 that is publicly verifiable and highly resistant against manipulation (See for example https://eprint.iacr.org/2015/1015.pdf. The NIST randomness beacon would also work well for this, but it doesn't seem to be working. And decentralization does offer security benefits since technically NIST could manipulate their random numbers, or have advance knowledge of them.)
jack
Jack is betting YES at 99%
Outcome of the randomness beacon (I will leave this open for a bit so you can double check my work): The earliest block mined after market close is https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/00000000000000000003f40bb7a39f2772687d980786971293d6e1efb3ae63e9 Last 8 hex digits is b3ae63e9 = 3014550505. Dividing by 2^16, we get our random number 0.701879734. Therefore, resolves YES
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jfjurchen
J. F. Jurchen is betting NO at 57%
Expect someone will push this to either 0% or 100% at the last minute, betting towards 50% seems +EV
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Austin
Austin bought M$20 of NO
In expected value terms, this isn't any different than resolving to the final market probability as PROB, right?
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jack
@Austin Yeah, EV should be the same.
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