The probability this resolves YES is the market probability at close

Let p be the market probability at close (a number between 0 and 1). I will generate a random number r between 0 and 1 using the procedure described below, and this resolves YES if r < p. (If you don't care about the details of the random number generation, just imagine that we use random.org to generate a random number between 0 and 1, but in such a way that everyone can verify that there was no cheating.) The random number will be generated by using the bitcoin blockchain as a public randomness beacon. Using the data at https://www.blockchain.com/btc/blocks?page=1, take the earliest block mined after the market close that receives at least 3 confirmations. Take the last 8 hexadecimal digits of the hash, convert that to an integer, and divide by 16^8. This results in a random number between 0 and 1 that is publicly verifiable and highly resistant against manipulation (See for example https://eprint.iacr.org/2015/1015.pdf. The NIST randomness beacon would also work well for this, but it doesn't seem to be working. And decentralization does offer security benefits since technically NIST could manipulate their random numbers, or have advance knowledge of them.)

Related questions

Related questions