I will randomly select a subset of participants to form a survey panel. Make a trade or like the market to be eligible to be selected. At a future point in time, they will answer the following poll question:

What is your credence (the probability of your belief) that Seymour Hersh's account of the killing of Osama bin Laden is more accurate than the official US account?

Resolves to the median response.

Context:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seymour_Hersh#Killing_of_Osama_bin_Laden

On May 10, 2015, Hersh published the 10,000-word article "The Killing of Osama bin Laden" in the London Review of Books (LRB) on the fourth anniversary of the Abbottabad raid that killed bin Laden (Operation Neptune Spear). It immediately went viral, crashing the LRB website.[37]

Hersh's story drew harsh criticism from reporters, academics, media commentators and officials.[38][39][40] Politico's Jack Shafer described the story as "a messy omelet of a piece that offers little of substance for readers or journalists who may want to verify its many claims".[41][42] Peter Bergen disputed Hersh's contentions, saying they "defy common sense";[43] Hersh responded that Bergen simply "views himself as the trustee of all things Bin Laden".[44] A similar dismissal of Hersh's account came from former CIA Deputy Director Michael Morell.[45] A former intelligence official who had direct knowledge of the operation speculated that the Pakistanis, who were furious that the operation took place without being detected by them, were behind the false story as a way to save face.[46]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Osama_bin_Laden#Alternative_accounts

https://www.vox.com/2015/5/11/8584473/seymour-hersh-osama-bin-laden

Motivation for this poll method is so that the selected respondents can potentially spend more time reading up about it, and less just based on people's initial impressions.

(If you have thoughts/feedback/suggestions on how best to run a question like this, please let me know!)

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